‘How can I use xG to determine the expected outcome of a game?’ was the question that took @FitbaInScotland from having a passing interest in analytics, into actually writing about it. The answer to the question is xP or Expected Points.
An updated Projected League Table applying a model created by @TheGersReport sees Rangers moving in the right direction & indicators that Kilmarnock are on the verge of another winning run.
Dougie Wright looks at Rangers’ Europa League group stage rivals.
Which sides are best at limiting the oppositions Possession Efficiency and which sides are as watertight as a sieve? @FitbaInScotland uses Per Possession statistics to establish just that.
Seth Dodson takes xWP a step further by introducing the concept of residual win percentage or rWP, the difference between actual win percentage and xWP.
@TheGersReport introduces his new Projected Points table. This will be an ongoing feature at Modern Fitba. In this initial post, we will highlight how these kinds of projections can help teams make necessary adjustments by highlighting the struggles hidden in Rangers underlying numbers
Which team make the most of their possession. What’s the point of having a lot of possession if you don’t do anything with it? A statistical look into which teams are impotent in possession and which teams play…virile football…
Players get labeled “great finishers” or “poor finishers” all the time, & the reality is that it is very rarely based on actual facts. Often these labels are simply based on the most recent (or famous) memory of the player. @TheGersReport examines the underlying numbers that help define a “great finisher.”
Today’s center back is required to be as proficient on the ball as they are defending. Which SPFL center back’s have the best passing metrics in Scotland?
In his ongoing series of looking at Defensive Third Exits, @TheGersReport tracked a couple of young center-backs (John Souttar & Jack Hendry) & was thoroughly impressed by the play of Peter Haring.
Hibernian meet Norwegian foes Molde in the third round of Europa League qualifying. With a talented young group of attackers, Molde are a formidable foe. What can Hibs do to try and beat their Eliteserien competition and what should they be weary of?:
@TheGersReport uses Defensive Third Exits to highlight just how good Ryan Jack was against Aberdeen, while also identifying ways that may make Connor Goldson even more effective as a defender for Rangers.
After rebooting him over the summer, we’ve plugged our SPFL Projection model B.U.R.L.E.Y. back in and he printed out his projected SPFL Premiership table for the 2018-2019 season.
@FitbaInScotland isn’t a fan of Average Squad Age so seeks to find an alternative using ‘Peak Age’ to show how clubs player ages are distributed
@TheGersReport plays around with Projected Goals to see which teams & players are due to see an increase or decrease in goal scoring next season.
In this second part of a series exploring how statistical analysis of other leagues can help identify potential players for Scottish clubs, Christian Wulff set his eyes on Switzerland.
A look at how Rangers center backs handled transitioning the ball out of the defensive third in their big European win over NK Osijek
The SPFL announced the return of the Reserve Leauge, in hopes to give young players more experience. But after looking at the data, is there really a need for it’s return? We also break down which SPFL clubs give the most minutes to young players.
Last week, @TheGersReport used Age Adjusted goal statistics to identify the best forward prospects from the league formally known as the Developmental League…now it’s time to use the same approach to find the next crop of elite Scottish midfielders & wingers.
Rosenborg come in to their Champions League qualifying match up with Celtic after sacking their manager and sitting second in the table. Can they trouble the Bhoys?
Want to see how clubs can use analytics for recruitment? Christian Wulff walks you through the process as he uses data to identify talent in the Belgium Jupiler Pro League.
@TheGersReport uses Age Adjusted Stats from the Scottish Developmental league to determine who are the best youth forward prospects in Scottish football.
Adam Rooney has left Aberdeen after being sold to English National League club Salford City FC, which somehow made Jim White think Scottish Football is at a “new low”? Of course, Jim is wrong and it was a good opportunity for Aberdeen to sell.
@TheGersReport takes a look at those players who played less than 900 minutes last season who may become breakout players in 2018-19 if given the chance.
Dougie Wright takes a look at how to apply key pass locations to help teams prepare better.
Tony Watt has had a well traveled career thus far, but can the Scottish striker finally thrive at St. Johnstone or will he struggle in Perth?
Amidst speculation of a move away from Ibrox, @FitbalnScotland takes a look at the numbers behind Josh Windass’ 2017/18 season.
@TheGersReport has played around with some numbers & has developed a new passing rating that helps identify the best (& worst) playmakers in the Scottish Premiership.
With Stuart Armstrong completing his move to Southampton, is the stage set for John McGinn to take his place in the Celtic squad? This is the topic in the first in our series of quick comparison analysis.
For the SPFL Premiership 2018/19, Modern Fitba will use its own Expected Goals (xG) model and over two parts, Christian Wulff explains everything you need to know about it. This second part focuses on why xG is used, how it is the best predictor of future performances, and looks at some examples of its use in the Premiership.